A Dynamical Model with Time Delay for Risk Contagion

The explanation of risk contagion among economic players—not only in financial crises—and how they spread across the world has fascinated scholars and scientists last few decades. Inspired by literature dealing with analogy between systems ecosystems, we model revisiting mathematical approach epidemiological models for infectious disease a new paradigm. We propose time delay differential system describing diffusion companies inside an sector means SIR dynamics. Contagion is modelled terms credit risks low high levels. A complete theoretical analysis problem carried out: well-posedness solution positivity are proven. existence risk-free steady state together endemic equilibrium verified. Global asymptotic stability investigated both equilibria classical Lyapunov functional theory. tested on case study some operating food specific Italian region. allows understanding crucial role incubation immunity period behaviour any permanence rather than its disappearance.